The situation in the world economy in 2011 will largely depend on the development of the crisis in the eurozone, but this factor will be rather moderate constraint. World economic growth will slow in 2012, but not more than 1 percentage point. In the U.S., we expect to accelerate growth, while China’s economy will continue to slowly decrease your speed. This may dramatically effect the Dow Jones Index $DJIA The dynamics of these two countries with a high probability will support the entire economic system, not allowing the situation in the euro area in 2012 to draw global economy in crisis, similar to 2008. However, the likelihood of a full-scale crisis in the EU in 2012 is not excluded, although the most likely next year will be for the European Union only a year of recession, with GDP growth between 0.5%. In our opinion, a formal default by Greece in 2012, most likely still will not happen, and Italy will brake its approach to preddefoltnomu state. The ECB and the EU still be able to coordinate policies and to show some resolve. Although the final solution to the problem does not occur, and the measures have a negative impact on locomotives in the eurozone. Thus, the credit rating will be downgraded France, Germany, although rating still stand.
As a consequence of positive dynamics in the U.S. economy and the withdrawal of investors in U.S. assets from the assets of the EU, the Dow Jones $DIA by year-end may reach a level of 12 500 points. The euro-dollar at the same time weaken to 1.25. The Russian ruble by year-end to the U.S. currency weakens not much – to about 33 rubles / dollar. However, this is the case if a full-blown crisis in Europe still in 2012, not hurt, and the EU will be able to coordinate a common policy to resolve the crisis.
The uncertainty in the global economy, where some countries are showing good growth, while others are on the brink of default, the market impact of minerals. Quotes of energy and metals will be volatile during the year, notably in response to news of the leading countries. Overall in 2012 there will be a slight tendency to decrease in quotations of commodities. As a result, the price of Brent oil falls below $ 100, but the average price for a year might get at a level above $ 100 due to the high price of the first half.
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